The most striking example and evidence of this I found was not in an experiment on business leaders but from an experiment on political leaders � although I am sure the situation won�t be much different for business leaders.
Two researchers from the faculty of business and economics at the University of Lausanne - John Antonakis and Olaf Dalgas � ran an experiment in which they gave 684 people in Switzerland photographs � and nothing else � of the pairs of faces (the winner and runner-up) from the run-off stages of the 2002 French parliamentary election. These Swiss people would never have seen and did not know anything about these sets of two candidates. Subsequently they asked them �who do you think will win this election?� In 72 percent of the cases, having seen only the two photographs, people predicted the results of the elections correctly� That�s probably a lot better than most political analysts.
Then they got a little mischievous; they gave the photographs to 681 children and told them �we are going to play boat; who do you want as captain of our ship?� In 71 percent of the cases, the children�s� choice correctly predicted the winner of the local French parliamentary elections.
We pretend � mostly to ourselves � when selecting a job market candidate, filling out a ballot, or choosing a leader, that we carefully weigh the pros and cons, assess someone�s experience and competence, and make a well-informed rational choice. Yet, in reality, at the end of the day, we�re all just playing boat.
